DATA: North Carolina – The Skinny – April 29

Yesterday, the NCDHHS released an update on its COVID-19 modeling.  The new modeling takes into account three possible infection levels. On page 5 of the report, you can see that they use those three levels to determine the total number of infections (reported and unreported), acute bed demand, and ICU bed demand.

This first graph shows the three scenarios and the total number of cases (reported/unreported) of COVID-19. The blue region estimates infections to be between 75,000 to 150,000 by the end of May. The yellow region (moderate viral spread) has a range between 185,000 to 596,000 cases by the end of May. The modelers “do not believe” the state will see the red region, but rather it’s included to “depict the potential impact of a higher range.”

Here, we can see the demand on the acute hospital beds (estimated to be about 8,311 statewide), would not be exhausted in 2/3 scenarios. The modelers said these projections “forecast minimal stress on the aggregated acute capacity in North Carolina during the bed month of May.”

The third model they used, shows that we could anticipate hitting the ICU capacity, and while our capacity “appears sufficient in the near term, this modeling illustration shows a plausible scenario of pressure on healthcare capacity.”

The modeling, researchers say, supports a “gradual reopening” of the state.

By the Numbers: 

• 9,893 known cases(as of 10:32 a.m.)
• 9,568 positive cases confirmed by NCDHHS
• 1,014,568 cases in the U.S. (as of 10:32 a.m.)
• 112,752 completed tests reported to DHHS
• 5,795,728 tests completed in the U.S.
• 463 people currently hospitalized due to COVID-19
• 366 deaths in North Carolina
• 58,471 deaths in the U.S. (as of 10:32 a.m.)
• 96 counties with confirmed cases

Latest Developments

• Yesterday, Gov. Cooper said he was confident that testing would increase in North Carolina to the 5,000-7,000/day range. The state has only been above that 5,000 mark four times in April.
  • Cooper also said that the Coca-Cola 600 race is on track for May 24 at Charlotte Motor Speedway.
• 74 positive COVID-19 cases were found at Mountaire Farms after about 21 percent of the employees were tested.
  • President Trump signed an executive order yesterday that requires meat processing plants to stay open.
• College students in NC are suing universities for reimbursements for tuition and fees following campus shutdowns due to COVID-19.
• The chairman of the Gaston County Board of Commissioners announced the board is planning to reopen the county, contradicting Gov. Cooper’s orders.

 Quick Hits

• The nation’s economy shrank 4.8% in the first quarter, and GDP saw the steepest contraction since the Great Recession.
  • From The Wall Street Journal: “Consumer spending drove the drop, falling at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7.6%, the largest decline since the second quarter of 1980, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday. The quarter also saw a sharp decline in business investment, with the fall-off in consumer and business spending only partially offset by gains in government spending and residential investment.”
• Pfizer announced it will begin U.S. testing for a COVID-19 vaccine next week.
• Local governments, as they begin to look at their budget shortfalls, are eyeing reductions to their workforces. Some have already begun laying off or furloughing workers.